A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
