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Increasing concerns have emerged over the possibility of armed conflict among Horn of Africa countries, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as confrontational rhetoric has ratcheted up in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Declared?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, requests for entry to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has sparked a intense war of words.

Ethiopian Prime Minister previously announced in 2023 that his country's sea access was an vital issue, comments that Eritrea dismissed.

Ties between the two countries have regularly been difficult. After a long-standing struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive Red Sea coastline, formally separated from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, rendering it cut off from the sea.

Subsequently, a military clash broke out in which numerous people died.

Recent Statements from Ethiopian Leadership

Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrea's coastal city of the port of Assab – about 60km from the border - and suggested the wish to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "error" of losing access to the sea as a because of Eritrea's separation would be "addressed soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be returned "using武力".

Eritrean Answer to the Threats

In the face of ongoing threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been confined to brief comments on X from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for maritime entry describing it as "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "territorial claims" – a approach of retaking lost territory.

Eritrean authorities cautioned on 16 September that attempts to validate "blatant hostility" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Preparations on the Region

So far, there are few indications of major military movements in the border areas between the two countries.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has broadcast completion events of thousands of cadets at different defense facilities.

The head of human resources department of the armed forces, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an interview that the military was in a "strong stance" as "many thousands of youths" were enlisting, which he said was "a warning to our opponents".

Past Roots of the Tension

For decades from the late 19th century, the territory was ruled by Italian rulers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then administered by the UK forces before becoming a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor ended this agreement and the region became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A extended internal conflict followed, concluding with the government's loss in 1991. Sovereignty was then endorsed by Eritreans in a plebiscite in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they fell out over the specific demarcation of their shared boundary, leading to war in 1998.

Even though this finished in a truce in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors continued at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrean President President Isaias. The both leaders agreed to a declaration that the hostilities was finished – a move that earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The two governments were then allies in the country's previous civil war in Tigray.

But relations have since broken down anew.