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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as assurances matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.