This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Propels Aston Villa's Improbable Push for Glory
A mere eight weeks prior that the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as Unai Emery berated him over not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, the question was if Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason of the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. As the England international drilled in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their opening six fixtures, now sit a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?
This is a rather hard question to address. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, even as the victories have accumulated.
According to Opta, on just two occasions has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club that have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for their star man to bail them out with some precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition registered more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they must confront as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still find their top level.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the player he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.